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If you’re jet-setting away this holiday weekend, you may be wondering: Will my holiday flight be canceled?
After the week we’ve seen at Newark Liberty International Airport, no one would blame you for asking.
Across the nation, airlines have has already seen more than 100,000 delays and nearly 9,000 cancellations before the holiday weekend even began. Flight tracking platform FlightAware reports at least 151 flight cancellations Saturday and an additional 32 on Sunday for the whole U.S.
“What we’re seeing in the last two years is not normal,” senior fellow at the American Economic Liberties Project William McGee said. “The number of flight delays and flight cancellations in the summer of 2022 set new records. We don’t want to repeat that in 2023.”
So what are the chances you’ll get off on time — if at all?
There are a few things in your way.
Are there holiday delays at Newark Airport?
Newark Airport, especially, is seeing backed-up flights, according to McGee. He said many of the airport’s problems come from United Airlines’ own issues in crew scheduling and poor response to staff shortages and thunderstorms.
“It’s clear United is having issues that no other airline is having so you really can’t blame the weather or the air traffic control for that because that is on United,” McGee said.
McGee said other airlines did face some delays and cancellations due to outside factors, staff shortages and thunderstorms, but not like United. Three of the four nationwide airports with major delays are United hubs, according to flight tracker FlightStats.
Will my holiday flight be canceled because of staffing shortages?
The Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is predicting this Friday to be the busiest Independence Day holiday for air travel since the beginning of the pandemic. This surge in passengers is met with fewer trained air traffic controllers to get planes in the air.
The Inspector General Office at the Department of Transportation released a report last week that found 77 percent of critical air traffic control facilities are below the 85 percent staffing threshold. The Federal Aviation Agency’s New York terminal, responsible for directing the aircraft of John F. Kennedy, Newark Liberty and LaGuardia Airports, is staffed at 54 percent.
“Ensuring adequate staffing and training for air traffic controllers — an essential part of maintaining the safety and efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) — has been a challenge for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), especially at the nation’s most critical facilities,” the report said.
While staff training may fix shortages in the long-term, the Inspector General Office doubts the Federal Aviation Agency will “successfully train enough controllers in the short term,” according to its report.
Analysis of the Federal Aviation Agency also found the agency lacks a plan to address staffing challenges.
“FAA has made limited efforts to ensure adequate controller staffing at critical air traffic controlfacilities,” the Inspector General Office report said.
Will weather cancel my holiday flight?
Around 75 percent of air traffic delays are caused by poor weather conditions such as the tumultuous thunderstorms that have plagued the East Coast this week. Forecasts up until Fourth of July continue to predict unsettling skies with potential showers and thunderstorms.
The hot and humid summer months are a breeding ground for turbulent weather. The already shortened staff now have to resolve problems caused by unsafe flying conditions, leading to more delays and cancellations.
The forecast calls for sun on Saturday, with a high of 84. But there is a 64 to 68 percent chance of thunderstorms Sunday and Monday, with a high of 81 and 85.
Newark Airport accounts for 13 percent of total cancellations within, into or out of the United States occurring on Friday. Still, as of 6 p.m. Friday, FlightAware said there were only three flights canceled out of Newark on Saturday, and one on Sunday.
You may be in luck.
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