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A new poll conducted by GQR Research finds that Rep. Mikie Sherrill leads the potential 2025 NJ Democratic gubernatorial primary field. The poll, commissioned by the Principled Veterans Fund shows Sherrill in the strongest position to win the primary. According to the poll, she is well-known and better liked than most of her potential competitors.
Rep. Sherrill’s profile holds broad regional, ideological, and demographic appeal. She performs especially well among women, who comprise almost 60 percent of the primary electorate. Sherrill starts with a positive profile-a majority of voters are familiar with her, and she has the highest number of strongly favorable voters.
Abortion is the central animating factor among the primary electorate. Three in four primary voters rate abortion rights as the most important issue when considering their vote for governor. Majorities also say that abortion policy is more important than both cost of living and taxes when deciding who to support for governor. Among the 44 percent of voters who satisfy all three criteria, Sherrill’s favorability ratings spike to 43 percent.
Abortion is the most important issue in this race for governor, higher than other issues like the cost of living and taxes. Among abortion motivated voters, Sherrill holds a clear lead that grows to a near majority after voters hear her biography. She also has an advantage as the only woman in the race and among the voters most concerned about protecting abortion rights. She easily beats Gottheimer and Fulop in North Jersey while Sweeney manages only a third of the vote in South Jersey. Baraka has a voter base, but he also has a ceiling of support. Throughout the survey, Baraka never gets more than 23 percent of the vote and struggles to expand his base of support. Sherrill grows her support after voters hear more about her, especially among women, older and voters in both major media markets.
Sherrill is well positioned to win the 2025 Gubernatorial primary.
These results are based on a survey of 603 likely 2025 Democratic primary voters in New Jersey that fielded from March 7-12, 2024. Respondents were contacted through the voter file. The data is subject to a margin of error of +/- 4.0 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Principled Veterans Fund March 2024 Primary Poll Analysis
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