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In a few days it will be 2024 and things will get back to “normal.”
So, in no particular order, this is a great time to think about the questions reverberating around New Jersey politics that need to be answered in the year ahead.
Just how long is Chris Christie going to be able to stay in the presidential race?
The former governor is aiming for a good showing in New Hampshire where the primary is now less than a month away. His polling there has not been awful, but here’s the problem: He has fallen behind Nikki Haley, which is a big deal.
You figure that Christie’s goal is to emerge from New Hampshire as a legitimate alternative to Donald Trump and a third place finish is not going to accomplish that. Keep in mind that Christie isn’t really competing in the Iowa caucuses, which take place on Jan. 15, eight days before New Hampshire.
So unless the polls are wrong – or if Christie has a late surge – the former governor is probably going to have to make a decision on his future political plans immediately after New Hampshire.
The year, 2024, is a congressional election year – once again.
Given the fact many of the state’s 12 districts are gerrymandered, there are not many competitive races.
But there are still interesting questions.
Both Josh Gottheimer (CD-5) and Mikie Sherrill (CD-11) are reportedly interested in running for governor in 2025.
But their congressional terms are up in 2024, so both will – presumably – seek re-election to the House. That means, quite obviously, that any gubernatorial plans Gottheimer and Sherrill may have are going to be brought up in next year’s campaign.
It is a legitimate topic. Why seek reelection to Congress in 2024 if you want to run for governor in 2025?
It will be enlightening to see how Gottheimer and Sherrill handle this question.
Let’s move to CD-9 where Democrat Bill Pascrell has served in the House since way back in 1997. Now in his mid-eighties, Pascrell’s win in 2022 with 55 percent of the vote was quite low by his own history.
Now, Pascrell has quite the thorny problem on his hands in Hamas’
attack on Israel.
Long a supporter of Israel, Pascrell has many Palestinians and Muslims in his district. Weather that prompts a primary remains to be seen.
Pascrell does have experience in intra-party fights. Back in 2012, Pascrell beat fellow House member Steve Rothman, a contest prompted by redistricting. It was a massive plurality in his hometown of Paterson that keyed his win. But would that happen again with the backlash from the war in the Middle East?
Over in Hudson County, Robert Menendez Jr. most certainly got to the House in CD-8 on the strength of his last name, But now, that name is a bit sullied – to say the least.
Ravi Bhalla, the mayor of Hoboken, is challenging the younger Menendez in the June primary.
So the question is obvious: Will Menendez now lose his seat because of his last name? That may not seem fair, but fairness has nothing to do with it.
If there is a truly competitive district out there, it has to be CD-7 where Republican Thomas H. Kean Jr. ousted Democrat Tom Malinowski in 2022.
The district tilts Republican, which naturally favors Kean. But the question is, will Kean continue his pattern of avoiding unscripted interactions with the press and general public?
The strategy worked in 2022, so Team Kean has to figure it’s going to work in 2024 as well. It’s hard to see him changing his pattern.
As for the parties more broadly, let’s ask two questions on the heels of the Democrats’ good showing in last fall’s legislative election.
Just what will the Dems do with their increased majority (six in the Assembly; the Senate stayed the same).
On one hand, the party can see voters’ support as encouragement to take bold action on core Democratic values. Then again, Recent history tells us that Democrats in New Jersey often shy away from “bold action,”
As for the Republicans, you have to believe that it is time to ask some hard questions. Sure, it may have been mere lip service, but GOP leaders throughout the campaign said they had the momentum on their side, especially with the issue of parents’ rights.
Turns out they didn’t.
What happened and how do Republicans stop it from happening again? The next statewide election is now less than two years away in 2025.
The most intriguing question of the new year perhaps is the Democratic primary for U.S. senator.
Indictment or not, Bob Menendez Sr. may indeed run for reelection. But he’s not going to win.
So this looks like a race between Tammy Murphy and Andy Kim.
This already has conjured up stories about nepotism, political privilege and the power of the “county line.”
Many in the state’s Democratic establishment are endorsing the governor’s wife. That’s probably no surprise.
So as of now, this is a battle between the establishment and the rank and file.
In making a prediction five months or so in advance, let’s remember that party bosses have the influence.
But there are many more average Democratic voters than there are bosses.
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