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Canada continues to hit record smashing growth numbers. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) data shows the 2023 population growth was the largest in more than a half-century. Virtually all population growth is now immigration, with most being “temporary” residents. Upcoming policy changes to limit future immigration is likely to have a very big effect on further growth.
Canada’s Population Grew At The Fastest Rate Since 1957
Canada’s population continues to surge, printing yet another quarter of record growth. Stat Can estimates there were 40.769 million “inhabitants” in the country on Jan 1, 2024. This represents a 0.6% increase in Q4 2023, and a whopping 3.2% rise over all of 2023. The rate was the largest for Canada since 1957, back when the population was just 16.69 million people.
Canadian Population Growth Hits Highest Rate Since 1957
The 12-month change in quarterly population estimates for Canada. Quarterly measurements taken on the first day of the quarter.
Source: Statistics Canada; Better Dwelling.
Canada’s Population Boom Is Mostly “Temporary” Residents
Driving most of the 66-year record was temporary residents. These include temporary workers, as well as those visiting on study permits. This class represented two-thirds of the growth observed in 2023, dropping growth to just 1.2% if excluded.
Canada has pivoted away from natural birth and shifted entirely to immigration for growth. Virtually all growth (97.6%) was due to international migration. Only a sliver—the remaining 2.4% growth was due to natural increases (births outpacing deaths).
Canada To Implement Immigration Caps, Potentially A Big Shift
Canada’s pursuit of high immigration-based growth is likely creating a cyclical problem. Two-thirds of young adults cite financial pressure as the reason they have a smaller family. Not a surprising result, since studies show rising home prices are directly related to declining birth rates. Since accommodating robust immigration requires smaller and more expensive housing, the inflationary pressure creates a new dependency problem—continued immigration.
As a result of this immigration dependency issue, Canada might see a huge shift in the coming months. The country recently announced its first-ever temporary resident cap. This comes just a few weeks after they announced new limits for study permits. Though it was always tough to see perpetual growth, considering the rising share of immigrants choosing to leave the country after just a few years.
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