Emerson New Hampshire Poll: Trump Leads Haley in Primary by 15 Points

“Ahead of Tuesday’s primary, Trump has regained majority support in New Hampshire,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The former president holds nearly two-thirds of support among registered Republican voters in the primary, leading Haley 65% to 23%. Haley holds the plurality of independent voters’ support, leading Trump 47% to 33%.”

“Haley’s base continues to be older voters, over 70 specifically, and those with postgraduate degrees. She holds the plurality of support among these groups, 46% of 70+ voters and 45% of postgrads,” Kimball said. “Haley’s lead is narrow over Trump among these groups, whereas Trump has a more commanding lead over Haley within his base demographics, leading 62% to 17% among voters under 40, and 61% to 18% among voters with a high school degree or less.”

Eighty-three percent say they will definitely vote for the candidate they chose, while 17% say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else.

• Trump voters are least likely to say they might change their mind: 90% of Trump supporters say they will definitely vote for Trump, 10% say they could change their mind.
• Eighty percent of Haley supporters say they will definitely support Haley, 20% could change their mind.

Republican Primary voters were asked if Nikki Haley not participating in the final two New Hampshire debates impacts their vote, and separately if Donald Trump not participating in any primary debates has an impact on their vote. Regarding Haley, 74% of Republican Primary voters say it has no impact on their vote, while 19% say it makes them less likely to support Haley, and 7% say it makes them more likely to support her. Regarding Trump’s lack of participation in debates, 60% say it has no difference on their vote, 25% say they are less likely to vote for Trump because of this, and 15% are more likely to support him.

In the Democratic Primary, 61% of voters plan to write-in President Joe Biden, 16% plan to vote for Dean Phillips, and 5% support Marianne Williamson. Sixteen percent are undecided.

“Biden’s strength generally increases with voters’ age, 84% of Democratic Primary voters over 60 plan to write Biden in, compared to 70% of voters in their 50s, 52% of voters in their 40s, and 40% of voters under 40,” Kimball noted. “Dean Phillips’ support comes from voters under 50, 26% of voters in their 40s support Phillips along with 22% of voters under 40.”

The top issues for Republican Primary voters include the economy (36%), immigration (20%), housing affordability (12%), and threats to democracy (12%). For Democratic Primary voters, top issues include housing affordability (24%), threats to democracy (19%), the economy (16%), and abortion access (14%).

Republican voters who find the economy to be the top issue facing their state break for Trump over Haley 57% to 31%, and immigration 77% to 10%. Those concerned about housing break for Haley 53% to 37%, along with threats to democracy, 67% to 20%. Kimball noted, “A problem for Haley is that she is not the preferred candidate among voters concerned about top Republican issues of the economy and immigration, while Trump is heavily favored among voters concerned about these issues. While Haley has majority support among voters concerned about housing and democracy, they make up a lesser share of the electorate.”