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The No. 5-seeded Eagles (11-5) are heading to Tampa to face the Buccaneers (9-8) in an NFC wild card round matchup on Monday Night Football.
Here are some key matchups to watch:
Jalen Hurts, offensive coaches vs. Todd Bowles
The Eagles really struggled against Wink Martindale’s blitz-heavy scheme in Week 18, which doesn’t bode well going into the playoffs. Because they’re about to face another defensive coach who is known for heating up quarterbacks. This is what Todd Bowles has been doing for years.
And even though the Eagles beat the Bucs easily in Week 3 this season, that was clearly Bowles’ plan in that game. He blitzed Hurts on 75% of his dropbacks, which is the highest percentage blitz fare from the No. 3 blitzing defense this season. It just makes sense to send a lot at Hurts, especially given the Eagles’ uneven ability to handle the blitz.
Head coach Nick Sirianni took ownership for the Eagles’ struggles against the blitz against the Giants.
“We have our ways that we’re going to fix it,” Sirianni said. “We have our ways that we’re going to move forward with it.”
There’s plenty of blame to go around for the Eagles’ failure to combat the blitz but plenty of it belongs with the coaching staff. They need to do more schematically to give Hurts some easier answers for the blitz. There’s only so many potential answers. For much of the season, the Eagles’ favorite schematic answer has been screen passes and getting horizontal. But they can also run into blitzes, they can find some quicker developing routes and, occasionally, they can max protect and take a shot.
While the Eagles have been able to handle blitzes better in some games than others, overall it has been a bit of a problem. Just take a look at Hurts’ numbers this season:
Not blitzed: 61.3% of dropbacks, 220/327 (67.3%), 2,367 yards, 15 TDs, 7 INTs
Blitzed: 38.7% of dropbacks, 132/211 (62.6%), 1,491 yards, 8 TDs, 8 INTs
The Eagles know Bowles is going to blitz Hurts in this game. It’ll be up to the coaching staff to prepare the quarterback as much as possible and then on game day, it’ll be up to Hurts to make the right reads and not get flustered.
D’Andre Swift vs. Bucs’ run defense
The Buccaneers ended up as a top 10 run defense in 2023. They were fifth in yards per game (95.3) and eighth in yards per attempt (3.8). The Bucs have been up-and-down against the run this season, though. They have given up 130+ yards in five games have have given up less than 60 yards in five games.
But there was one game this season where the Bucs really, really struggled against the run: Week 3 against the Eagles.
Way back on Sept. 25, the Eagles rushed for 201 yards and averaged over 5.0 yards per carry. What was really impressive was that the Eagles were able to control the clock with a lead and ended up winning the time of possession battle 38:55-21:05. In many games since then, the Eagles have not been able to operate their 4-minute drill as effectively.
Swift missed Week 18 with an illness and is expected to be back for this game on Monday night. He had a career season in 2023, getting over 1,000 yards for the first time in his career. But after his 130-yard performance against the Bucs in Week 3, he didn’t top 100 yards again the rest of the season.
Eagles banged up receivers vs. Shaky pass defense
The strength of the Eagles’ offense is clearly their two elite wide receivers. But entering this game, both A.J. Brown (knee) and DeVonta Smith (ankle) are a bit banged up. So is Jalen Hurts, who hurt his finger in Week 18. Smith missed that regular season finale but Brown played and hurt his knee.
This is the playoffs, so it’s fair to expect these guys to play but if they’re slowed down at all by injuries, then that’s not a good thing. At least the Monday night schedule will give these guys an extra day to heal.
The Bucs this season ended with the No. 29 passing defense in the NFL, giving up 248.9 yards per game through the air. And they do give up plenty of big plays.
Sirianni defines explosive plays as passes for 16+ yards and runs of 10+ yards. The Bucs this season have given up 89 passing plays of 16+ yards, which ranks tied for 25th in the NFL. Just seven teams have given up more.
The one guys to really worry about in the Buccaneers’ secondary is safety Antoine Winfield Jr., who is playing at a legitimate All-Pro level in 2023, despite getting snubbed from the Pro Bowl. This season, Winfield has 3 INTs, 6 FFs, 6 sacks, 122 tackles and 8 quarterback hits. He’s been all over the field this season.
Eagles corners vs. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin
The Eagles are expecting to get Darius Slay (knee) back for this game, which will be a big boost for a secondary and a defense that has struggled mightily down the stretch. There has been so much confusion on the field in recent weeks with huge breakdowns in the secondary. That’s scary entering a game against a couple of really good receivers.
Evans is 30 now but just made his fifth Pro Bowl and had his 10th consecutive 1,000 yards season to start his career. He’s also been dynamic in the red zone with 13 touchdown passes. And Godwin is still a dangerous No. 2 option, picking up another 1,000-yard season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield (ribs) is a bit banged up going into this game but if he can stand and deliver, he has really good options. The Bucs have also been playing sixth-round pick Trey Palmer out of the slot. Palmer, who ran a 4.33 at the combine, brings some added speed to the field.
In the first matchup between these two teams, Evans and Godwin saw a combined 15 targets and had 8 catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. And that was when this defense was still good.
While Evans sees the majority of his snaps on the left side and Godwin on the right, the Bucs do move these guys around a bit. About 24% of Evans’ snaps have come from the slot and about 33% of Godwin’s snaps have come from the slot. The Eagles also use
Keep an eye on James Bradberry in this game. The veteran corner has had a down season and teams have been choosing to target him down the stretch. That could be the case in this game against Tampa too.
Eagles linebackers vs. Rachaad White
The Eagles’ linebackers have been a problem for most of this season and getting back Zach Cunningham didn’t magically fix these issues in Week 18. The Eagles will go into the postseason with Cunningham, Nicholas Morrow, Shaq Leonard and Ben VanSumeren as their linebackers.
It’s not like White is a tremendous player but he’s solid and can put stress on your defense as a receiver out of the backfield. White this season has 990 rushing yards (3.6) but has also caught 64 passes for 549 yards and 3 touchdowns.
We’ve seen the Eagles look absolutely lost in zone coverage since the switch to Matt Patricia as de facto defensive coordinator. So the thought of White getting open and making Eagles defenders miss is a bit scary.
Eagles pass rush vs. right side of Bucs’ line
The Eagles’ pass rush has completely dried up this year. They finished the regular season with just 43 sacks as a team, which ranked tied for 19th in the NFL. And they didn’t get a single sack from their edge rushers in the last four games of the regular season.
This Bucs offensive line is OK but it’s not great. Tristan Wirfs has settled into his spot at left tackle and has been very good again. But if there’s one weakness on this line, it’s on the right side, where Luke Goedeke is at right tackle and Cody Mauch is at right guard. Mauch this season has given up a team-high 7 sacks and 48 pressures and Goedeke isn’t far behind him, giving up 5 sacks and 40 pressures, according to ProFootballFocus.
Haason Reddick finished this season with 11 sacks. Reddick and Myles Garrett are the only players in the NFL to have 11+ sacks in each of the last four seasons. But Reddick hasn’t had one in four games and has been dropping into coverage more and more under Patricia in the Eagles’ five-man front. The Eagles should just go out there with four linemen and let Reddick attack. If the Bucs start running all over you, then change it. But Reddick has to be utilized better.
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