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Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s top stories.
Canadian Real Estate
Canada’s Immigration Plan Is Not Viable In Any Version of Reality: BMO
Canada’s population growth strategy is quickly turning into a disaster. Not only has it driven interest rates higher, and failed to grow the economy—immigrants are finding themselves in precarious situations, and unable to find stable shelter. BMO warns that the effort is commendable, but isn’t viable in any form of reality. Worst of all, the opportunities Canada’s promising immigrants don’t resemble reality.
Canadians Flee The Country In The Fourth Highest Volume In 73 Years
Canadians are looking for greener pastures—a lot of them. Official data for the third quarter shows citizens left the country in the fourth highest volume in at least 73 years of available data. It’s a trend that began in 2016, when the volume roughly doubled the norm for the prior decade. It’s currently not a problem since immigration more than makes up for the outflow, but presents an issue when new immigrants realize Canadians are looking for opportunity abroad.
Canadian GDP Struggles, Will Get Worse Despite Population Boom: RBC
Canada’s record population boom is no longer able to drive growth. RBC warns gross domestic product (GDP) has failed to advance for a fifth consecutive quarter, and has contracted sharply on a per capita basis. The bank doesn’t see things getting better soon either—they expect the sixth quarter to come in negative, and have a negative short-term outlook.
Canadian Job Vacancies Are Falling Sharply As Excess Labor Rises
Canada’s labor market has been notoriously tight, but things are changing fast. Job vacancies dropped 9% in the third quarter, marking the fewest vacant roles available since 2021. The country is adding roughly two workers per vacant role, with most positions in low-wage, service-based industries. It’s not exactly an optimistic setup for a slowing economy.
Canadian Inflation Stalls W/ Carbon Tax Pause, BoC Preferred Measure Rises
Canadian headline inflation is still elevated, but failed to rise—which is a start. However, the stall was due largely to a temporary carbon tax pause, and falling energy costs. The central bank’s preferred inflation measure, which excludes food and energy, actually showed an acceleration. The mixed data shows things aren’t getting worse, but aren’t much better.
Bank of Canada Warns Mortgage Payments Will Soar, But Still “Affordable”
Bank of Canada estimates most households will see payments rise in the near future. About 80% of mortgage borrowers will pay a higher interest rate by 2027. However, the median payment will still be significantly lower than rent for an “affordable” one-bedroom apartment across Canada. If those levels truly are affordable, the risk of rising defaults is likely much smaller than many anticipate.
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