Monmouth Michigan Poll: Trump Swamps GOP Primary Field

Former President Donald Trump enjoys widespread support among an enthusiastic and motivated base of potential Republican primary voters in Michigan, according to the Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll. Compared to other Republican voters, Trump backers hold more conservative attitudes on abortion access and are less concerned about the party focusing too much on this issue. On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden has the support of 8 in 10 potential voters in his party’s primary, although only 1 in 4 are enthusiastic about the prospect of his nomination. The poll also finds that Republican and Democratic primary voters hold very different opinions on the recent United Auto Workers strike.

When asked who they support in February’s presidential primary, 63% of potential Republican voters choose Trump. The rest of the field trails far behind the front-runner, including Ron DeSantis (13%), Nikki Haley (13%), Chris Christie (5%), and Vivek Ramaswamy (3%). Among voters who describe themselves as MAGA supporters, 81% back Trump. Among non-MAGA Republicans, 36% say they will vote for Trump, compared with 24% for Haley and 18% for DeSantis. Overall, few Trump supporters (27%) say they would consider supporting another candidate in the primary.

Michigan does not have partisan registration, which means voters can choose either party’s primary ballot. These poll results are among voters who indicate having a 50-50 or better chance of voting in the state’s Republican primary. Trump’s support is slightly higher among those who did not vote in the 2016 presidential primary (68%) than among those who did vote in 2016 (58%). However, another key factor in determining turnout is voter motivation, and among those who report being extremely motivated to vote in this primary Trump’s support stands at 72%.

“The most likely voters to turn out in Michigan’s Republican primary seem to be the Trump enthusiasts. This probably includes many who were lukewarm on him eight years ago but are now fully behind his comeback bid. The other candidates just aren’t lighting the same kind of spark,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

When asked to react to different possible GOP nominees, 3 in 4 Republican voters say they would be either enthusiastic (45%) or satisfied (31%) if Trump gets the nod. Just over 6 in 10 feel it would be okay if DeSantis wins the nomination (17% enthusiastic and 46% satisfied) and half say the same about Haley (12% enthusiastic and 38% satisfied), but very few would be enthusiastic about either non-Trump outcome.

Trump (75% favorable and 19% unfavorable) and DeSantis (54% favorable and 26% unfavorable) are the only Republican candidates tested in the poll who garner favorable ratings from a majority of the potential primary electorate. Haley has a net positive rating below 50% (40% favorable and 29% unfavorable), Ramaswamy has an evenly divided rating (31% favorable and 33% unfavorable), and Christie has a decidedly negative rating (15% favorable and 60% unfavorable).

The poll also asked Republican primary voters about their views on the issue of abortion. Four in 10 feel abortion should be legal in either all (12%) or most (28%) cases, while 43% say it should be illegal in most cases and 11% say it should be illegal in all cases. These results are nearly identical to an earlier Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll of South Carolina Republicans, but are more conservative views than in a recent New Hampshire poll of primary voters. Most Michigan Republicans prefer a candidate who supports some limits on abortion access, but are divided on whether they want someone who backs a six week limit which would ban most abortions (35%) or a 15 week limit which would ban less than half of abortions (35%). Trump backers (62%) are also more likely than those who support other candidates (41%) to say abortion should be illegal in most cases and are more likely to prefer a candidate who backs a six week limit (40% of Trump voters compared with 26% of other Republicans). A majority (56%) of potential GOP primary voters in Michigan are at least somewhat concerned that the Republican Party is focusing too much on abortion. This concern is more likely to be found among those who support candidates other than Trump (66%) than among Trump backers (50%).

DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY

Among potential Democratic voters in Michigan – those who indicate a 50-50 chance or better of voting in that party’s presidential primary – 79% support Biden for the nomination, while 9% back author and 2020 candidate Marianne Williamson and 5% back Minnesota Congressman Dean Phillips. Biden has more support among voters aged 50 and older (89%) than he does among those under 50 years old (67%). In terms of the most likely Democratic electorate, Biden’s support increases to 87% among those who report being extremely motivated to vote in the February primary.

Despite his widespread support, just 27% of potential Democratic primary voters would be enthusiastic about Biden’s renomination, while another 51% would feel satisfied with this outcome. Interestingly, the findings are similar in a hypothetical situation where Biden’s vice president became the party’s nominee. Specifically, 25% would feel enthusiastic and 48% would be satisfied if Kamala Harris won the Democratic nomination.

FINANCES AND THE UAW

Just over half (56%) of Democratic primary voters describe the state of the nation’s economy in positive terms, but only 9% of Republicans say the same. Looking at their own financial situations, majorities of both Democrats (58%) and Republicans (52%) report being basically stable right now, but Republicans (42%) are more likely than Democrats (23%) to say they are struggling to remain where they are financially. Just 18% of Democrats and 6% of Republicans feel their current financial situation is improving. Among Republicans, Trump voters (48%) are more likely than those who back other candidates (33%) to say they are struggling with their personal finances.

The poll asked voters in both parties about the recently settled strike between the United Auto Workers union and automakers Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis. Among Republicans, 31% say they agreed more with the workers during the strike and 17% agreed more with the auto companies, while 48% agree with neither side. Among Democratic voters, though, 80% sided with the workers. Trump voters (27%) are less likely than other Republicans (40%) to have agreed with the workers during this dispute.

The Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll was conducted by telephone and online from December 7 to 11, 2023 with 606 potential Republican presidential primary voters and 460 potential Democratic presidential primary voters in Michigan. The question results in this release have a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points for the Republican sample and +/- 5.0 percentage points for the Democratic sample. The poll was conducted jointly by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and the Washington Post.

QUESTIONS AND RESULTS     

(* Some columns may not add to 100% due to rounding.)

1.      How likely are you to vote in Michigan’s primary for president in February – are you absolutely certain to vote, will you probably vote, are the chances 50-50, or less than that?

2. Will you vote in the Republican or Democratic primary?

3.      How closely are you following the race for the 2024 [Republican/Democratic] presidential nomination?

4. How motivated are you to vote in the [Republican/Democratic] presidential primary?

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

ASKED OF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:

5. I’m going to read you the names of candidates running for president in the Republican Party.  Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. First, [READ NAME]. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

6. If the Republican primary for president was held today, for which one of the following candidates would you cast your vote? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

7. Are you definitely supporting [READ NAME FROM Q6] to be the Republican Party’s nominee, or would you consider supporting another candidate? [CHOICES WERE ROTATED]

8. Who would be your second choice? [If “DEFINITELY SUPPORTING” FIRST CHOICE, ASK:] If [NAME FROM Q6] decides to drop out of the race before the Michigan primary, who would be your second choice?

9. How would you feel if [READ NAME] became the Republican nominee – enthusiastic, satisfied, dissatisfied, or upset? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

10. Do you think abortion should be: legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? [CHOICES WERE READ IN REVERSE ORDER FOR A RANDOM HALF SAMPLE]

11. Would you prefer a Republican candidate who…? [FIRST TWO CHOICES ROTATED]

12. How concerned, if at all, are you that the Republican Party is focusing too much on abortion – very, somewhat, not too, not at all?

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ASKED OF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY:

DEM1. I’m going to read you the names of candidates running for president in the Democratic Party.  Please tell me if your general impression of each is favorable or unfavorable, or if you don’t really have an opinion. If you have not heard of the person, just let me know. First, [READ NAME]. [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

DEM2. If the Democratic primary for president was held today, for which one of the following candidates would you cast your vote? [NAMES WERE ROTATED]

DEM3. How would you feel if [READ NAME] became the Democratic nominee – enthusiastic, satisfied, dissatisfied, or upset? [FIRST THREE NAMES WERE ROTATED]

– – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – –

ASKED OF ALL PRIMARY VOTERS:

13. How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days – excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

14. How would you describe the state of Michigan’s economy these days – excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

15. How would you describe your personal financial situation – excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

16. Thinking about your current financial situation, would you say you are struggling to remain where you are financially, basically stable in your current financial situation, or is your financial situation improving?

17. As you may know, the United Auto Workers union recently held a strike against auto companies Ford, General Motors and Stellantis. During the strike, would you say you agreed more with the workers or with the auto companies, or with neither side? [FIRST TWO CHOICES WERE ROTATED]

[QUESTIONS 18 & 19 WERE ROTATED]

18. Would you support or oppose the U.S. providing additional arms and military supplies to support Ukraine in its war with Russia?

19. Would you support or oppose the U.S. providing additional arms and military supplies to support Israel in its war with Hamas?

20. Do you believe Joe Biden won the 2020 election fair and square, or do you believe that he only won it due to voter fraud?

21. In his response to the 2020 presidential election, do you think Donald Trump committed a crime, did something wrong but not criminal, or did nothing wrong? [CHOICES WERE READ IN REVERSE ORDER FOR A RANDOM HALF SAMPLE]

22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Gretchen Whitmer is handling her job as governor of Michigan? [Do you approve/disapprove strongly or somewhat?]

METHODOLOGY

The Monmouth University-Washington Post Poll was conducted from December 7 to 11, 2023, among a probability-based sample of 1,296 Michigan voters who voted in at least one primary election since 2016 or have newly registered since the 2020 election and not voted in a primary. The poll was conducted in English, and included 323 live landline telephone interviews, 493 live cell phone interviews, and 480 online surveys via a cell phone text invitation. Interviewing services were provided by Braun Research using telephone numbers randomly selected from a list of voters obtained from Aristotle. The full sample is weighted for region, age, gender and race based on the voter list and education based on US Census information (CPS and ACS one-year surveys). Results released from this poll are based on two separate sub-sets of voters who indicated they have a 50-50 chance or better of voting in the 2024 presidential primary, including 606 potential Republican primary voters and 460 potential Democratic primary voters. One can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points for the Republican sample (adjusted for design effects of 1.23) and plus or minus 5.0 percentage points for the Democratic sample (adjusted for design effects of 1.22). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see tables below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls. The Monmouth University Polling Institute and the Washington Post jointly sponsored and conducted this poll, and are responsible for all aspects of the questionnaire and sample design as well as weighting and data analysis.

REPUBLICANS: potential primary voter demographics (weighted)

Party ID (self-reported): 40% strong Rep., 11% soft Rep., 34% Ind-lean Rep., 14% Unlean Ind. or Dem.

Ideology: 34% very conservative, 33% somewhat conservative, 33% moderate, liberal

Sex: 55% male, 45% female

Race: 88% White, 6% Black, 2% Hispanic, 4% Asian/Other

Age: 21% 18-34, 19% 35-49, 29% 50-64, 31% 65+

Education: 35% high school or less, 36% some college, 16% 4-year degree, 13% advanced degree

Union household: 23% yes, 77% no

Income:  37%  <$50K, 34% $50 to <$100K, 30% $100K+

Evangelical:  45% yes, 55% no

MAGA supporter:  56% yes, 44% no

Voted in 2016 presidential primary: 53% yes, 47% no

Region by 2020 county level vote: 41% Trump >10 pts, 26% Within 10 pts, 33% Biden >10 pts

DEMOCRATS: potential primary voter demographics (weighted)

Party ID (self-reported): 48% strong Dem., 13% soft Dem, 31% Ind-lean Dem., 9% Unlean Ind. or Rep.

Ideology: 27% very liberal, 37% somewhat liberal, 36% moderate, conservative

Sex: 43% male, 57% female

Race: 73% White, 19% Black, 4% Hispanic, 6% Asian/Other

Age: 23% 18-34, 22% 35-49, 24% 50-64, 31% 65+

Education: 24% high school or less, 34% some college, 25% 4-year degree, 17% advanced degree

Income:  35%  <$50K, 40% $50 to <$100K, 25% $100K+

Union household: 31% yes, 69% no

Voted in 2016 presidential primary: 58% yes, 42% no

Region by 2020 county level vote: 23% Trump >10 pts, 28% Within 10 pts, 49% Biden >10 pts

Crosstabs may be found in the PDF file on the report webpage:  https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_MI_121423/

A Washington Post article on these poll results can be found at: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/12/14/trump-leads-gop-field-by-4-1-michigan-post-monmouth-poll-finds/  

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