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A new poll shows President Joe Biden and former president Donald Trump are neck-and-neck among Pennsylvania voters in a possible rematch even though a majority consider Trump’s actions to overturn the 2020 election a “serious crime.”
The Franklin & Marshall College poll, conducted Aug. 9 to 20, has Biden leading Trump 42% to 40%, a slight bump from the college’s April poll when Biden led 36% to 35%. Sixteen percent of voters picked another candidate, compared with 23% in April.
With the poll’s margin of error at +/- 4.5 percentage points, the race is a statistical tie. Yet other poll responses show that voters have a low opinion of Trump.
Nearly two-thirds of voters, 64%, gave Trump an unfavorable rating and 34% gave him a favorable rating. Biden also has a high unfavorable rating at 58%, and a favorable rating of 40%.
Half of voters said Biden is doing a poor job, 21% said good, 20% said fair and 9% said excellent.
When asked if they considered Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election a “serious crime,” 58% said they did and 35% said they did not.
There was a stark divide between Republican and Democratic views of Trump’s actions, with just 20% of Republicans saying his actions to overturn the 2020 election were “a serious crime,” compared with 89% of Democrats and 62% of independents. Sixty-nine percent of Republicans said Trump’s actions were not a serious crime, compared with 7% of Democrats and 31% of independents.
Trump, who was impeached twice, is set to surrender to authorities in Georgia on Thursday after he and 18 co-defendants were indicted for trying to change the election results in that state. It is Trump’s fourth indictment, following cases in New York, Washington, D.C., and Florida.
In Florida, Trump was indicted for taking classified documents from the White House. He’s since been charged with obstructing the federal investigation.
F&M pollsters asked voters if Trump should drop out because of the seriousness of the Florida charges and 42% said he should, while 20% said he should if he’s found guilty. However, 33% said Trump should continue running for president regardless of the outcome.
Voters were also asked why Trump and his companies were defendants in nearly 1,500 state and federal lawsuits before he was elected in 2016 and 47% agreed that Trump is a “law breaker who is only concerned about his own interests.”
Twenty-eight percent said that Trump is a target for lawsuits “because of his wealth and power” and 19% said he pushes the limits of the law “but is generally law abiding.”
All that legal baggage, though, is not hampering Trump in the Republican presidential primary. Trump has 39% of the GOP vote, putting him comfortably ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis at 21%.
Mirroring his struggling national campaign, DeSantis’ support in Pennsylvania has tumbled since April when he had 34% to Trump’s 40%.
Conversely, Vivek Ramaswamy, a biotech entrepreneur, has risen to third with 9% among state Republican voters, followed by South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott at 6%, and former Vice President Mike Pence and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, both at 5%.
F&M College said the margin of error for primary questions was +/- 7 percentage points.
Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey, who is up for re-election in 2024, had a 39% favorable rating, 30% unfavorable and 30% had no opinion on him. Twenty percent of voters said Casey is doing a poor job, while 30% said fair, 24% said good and 7% said excellent.
Former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, a Republican who lost to Dr. Mehmet Oz in last year’s Senate primary, is expected to challenge Casey, but he has not announced a bid yet.
Less than a year into his first term, Gov. Josh Shapiro enjoys a 56% favorable rating with just a 26% unfavorable rating. Twenty-nine percent said Shapiro is doing a good job, 25% said fair, 18% said excellent and 15% said poor.
Fifty-nine percent favor additional laws regulating gun ownership, 43% said strongly favor and 37% oppose them.
On abortion, 86% said it should be legal, with 48% saying under “certain circumstances” and 38% saying under “any circumstances.” Those numbers are the highest they’ve been in the last three years of the poll.
Thirteen percent said abortion should be illegal, an increase from 8% in the April poll.
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